Warning signs from Ireland
The trajectory of serious outcomes among the vaccinated is not good news
93.0% of eligible adults in Ireland are fully vaccinated.
This number comes straight from their health services weekly vaccination report. (Amazingly, they claim 99.9% fully vaccinated for those over age 70!)
The Irish also report ICU admissions and deaths every week. By comparing the current week’s report to the one from last week and doing simple subtraction, one can calculate the weekly numbers for each of those statistics broken down into fully-, partially-, and un-vaccinated.
The COVID death records over the last two months suggest vaccine efficacy (VE) at preventing fatalities is falling quickly:
Just two months ago, 60% of all deaths were unvaccinated; but that fell to 37% last week! At the same time, the upward trend of the gray line (fully vaccinated) shows that more and more of the deaths are in the fully vaccinated.
Before we just assume that this ‘proves’ that vaccines are failing, we need to check some things.
For example, the graph above is EXACTLY what you would see if lots of people were getting vaccinated over that two month period (i.e., the number of potential fully vaccinated victims would go up dramatically while the number of unvaccinated dwindles). So let’s look.
Have lots and lots of Irish gotten the shot over the last 2-3 months?
No.
The number of vaccines administered over this time period (and just before) is extremely low. (It is interesting that the news of the increased cases and deaths has apparently spurred another round of injections - perhaps boosters?)
OK, so it is not an artifact of the vaccination program.
It is also not an ‘accident’ caused by extremely low death numbers because deaths are moderate, but particularly because the trend lines are so consistent and do not have the noise associated with small numbers.
The only other caveat is that the top graph shows the percentage of each deaths from each category. Because this is a zero-sum figure (i.e., percentages have to add up to 100%), there are two issues:
1) this will accentuate/exaggerate the slope of the line (because as one goes down, the other must go up), and
2) we cannot tell from this data whether the result is due to a decrease in unvaccinated deaths or an increase in vaccinated ones (or a combination of both).
In reality, these are academic discussions because the data indicates that, over the last two months, unvaccinated people are better off than the vaccinated.
Whatever the underlying reason, this is not good news for vaccines.
Let’s also take a quick look at the other metric highlighted in this Irish data: ICU admissions.
Interestingly, the data here is more positive for vaccines - but the trends are still predicting an unpleasant reality for the mRNA drug.
In September, the ‘news’ is exactly what vaccine proponents advertise: the vast majority (72%) of people in the ICUs are unvaccinated. See vaccines work!
In fact, if you just took the last set of numbers (from November 11th), you could make the same argument: 63% of ICU stays are unvaccinated. Vaccines work!!!
But, by graphing the trend - we can clearly see that, over time, vaccines are doing worse and worse. Oh, maybe vaccines are not perfect…. we can’t tell people THAT!
This is why our CDC gives us only ‘snapshots’. They only tell us what the numbers are right now - never over time.
In fact, they hide the data needed to make analyses like this for USA covid deaths and hospitalizations.
I believe they hide the data because, even though the CDC skews the numbers to make vaccines look much better, the trends of decreasing efficacy would be obvious to all.
Remember when the CDC told us that vaccines prevented infection and transmission?
Even without being given the data, we (the public) figured out this is simply not true.
By now, everyone knows people who were fully vaccinated, but still caught the disease. Plus, overall case numbers are far too high to be a result of only unvaccinated infections.
The CDC continues to claim (mostly accurately) that vaccines help prevent those terrible outcomes, but even with them hiding the data that would demonstrate the downward VE trends, we will all figure it out soon enough. Sadly, we will experience this failure in death & hospitalization as personally as we did the failure in infections.