El Gato is one of my favorite COVID bloggers. Other than his annoying affectation of not capitalizing anything, he tends to be an original thinker and, besides highlighting interesting papers and philosophical/political topics, often does his own data analysis. Plus, he has great cat memes.
I ‘steal’ from him often (always properly cited, of course!).
In his most recent post, El Gato performed a simple, yet profound analysis:
He compared the number of mRNA shots with the number of adverse reaction reports in VAERS.
I encourage you to read his full post for the details of methodology and caveats, but his basic result is astonishing. Essentially, he took the total number of VAERS reports per month and divided that by the number of mRNA jabs for that same month.
Here are the results of that analysis:
You can see what appears to be a sudden, dramatic increase in hospitalizations-per-dose and deaths-per-dose beginning in December 2021.
He then ‘normalizes’ this data by assigning the “VAERS report per million doses” for the month of September a value of “1”. This makes it easy to see any change afterwards as a multiple (relative amount) of that September reporting.
It is now intuitively obvious that the hospitalizations- and deaths-per-dose explode around the start of the New Year.
But now you can also tell that there is a 4.1x jump in reports-to-dose starting in October 2021, implying a cause that started in September (based on the assumption that it takes a few days to see adverse events and/or to get them into the system).
This trend continued increasing until both hospitalizations and deaths peaked in March 2022 at more than 25 times that September ratio!
Remember: this is not an artifact of the number of doses - that has been corrected for.
Hmmmm, what started in September 2021 and then increased in late November-December that could have resulted in such a spike?
The third-shot booster fits perfectly:
So our choices for causing this dramatic increase in adverse reports per shot are:
a) boosters (additional doses increase adverse reactions exponentially)
b) greater awareness of the system leading to more reports (but perhaps not more actual events?).
c) something else - like omicron (somehow) affected the vaccine reports???
There are several other other options for “C” - none of them seem at all likely to me.
Also, greater reporting (B) may play a role… but enough extra reporting to result in twenty-eight times more hospitalizations-per-dose reports and twenty-six times more deaths-per-dose reports???? That seems unreasonable.